No - I don't mean Phil and his teammates - the well-known trio of Piot, Tringale and Steele.
I mean the guys who hit it, well, high.
And far for that matter.
The 2nd major of the year is on us.
The PGA Championships - aka the ugly duckling - travels to Rochester, New York - in the far north of USA, and Oak Hill Country Club. It will be the 8th time the course hosts a major and it has undergone a SIGNIFICANT restoration - with many thousand trees being removed and bunkers/greens being restored to their original Donald Ross glory.
Watch this video to get a full sense of the place and here for a hole-by-hole preview.
So we are dealing with tight fairways - thick rough - length - very likely cold weather and elevation changes.
The key skills I'm looking at are:
length and accuracy off the tee,
power out the rough, (more of an eye test than any numbers)
and tidy Strokes Gained numbers around the green.
Think Wingfoot 2020 when Bryson bludgeoned his way to a crowd-less win - but probably with more value for shot shapers. Some ability to handle cold weather is an added bonus.
In no particular order - here are my top 5 bets (odds in European format - ie number shows what you would win with a R1 bet placed):
1. Tony Finau - Top 10 (R3.20)
Finau has had an elite season thus far and ticks all the boxes I am looking at. And he's a great guy to root for.
2. Rickie Fowler - Top 20 (R3.10)
Big come back season for Ricky!
Ranks in top 20 strokes gained and 8th in scrambling from the rough. Driving accuracy a little concerning but a top 20 feels very attainable given his experience.
3. Tyrrell Hatton - Top 10 (R4.00)
Ranks in top 30 in all strokes gained metrics.
Top 5 in his last two starts and hits it plenty far and straight.
4. Dean Burmester - Top 20 (R7.00)
Had to include a LIV guy - and Burmester's length and current form get the nod. Decent odds for a guy who finished T11 at the last major.
and finally, a bet that probably goes against the skillsets I've highlighted but is more of an eye test:
5. Xander Schauffele to beat Rory McIlroy (R1.95)
Xander has finished in the top 10 in his last five starts. He hits it far enough and is a precise long-iron player. Ranks top 20 in approach and putting.
Rory Rory McIlroy.
What do we do with this guy? His metrics and momentum were popping off the chart before the Masters and then he puked all over his shoes. This was followed by a mysterious withdrawal for emotional time off and then a very average performance at Quail Hollow (normally a hunting ground for him).
I'm betting on the head still not being in the correct space.
My 3 winners pick's from each category:
Thorough-bred - John Rahm (R8.00)
Weekend Horse - Cameron Young (R32.00)
Pony - Min Woo Lee (R200.00)
Good luck out there!
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