There are three things that we know for sure about this year's Masters which factor into our picks:
It's going to be wet. Particularly on the weekend where currently >50mm or rain is predicted. There will be weather delays.
The course is longer than it has ever been.
Course experience and vibe at Augusta are still (and will always be) a thing.
Augusta National places less of a premium on driving accuracy than most places with a premium on approach play to the undulating greens. Landing areas the size of pool tables need to be hit to score and avoid potential three-putts. Given the weather and conditions (soft) - I'm placing a premium on driving carry distance and elite approach play. And, of course, Augusta gees.
I try find value in the 3/1 - 5/1 range.
1. Cameron Young - Top 5 (5/1)
Slow start to the year but was red hot at the Matchplay where he finished 2nd.
Ranks 3rd in driving distance carry and 17th in strokes-gained approach.
Missed the cut in his only Masters last year but put that down to being wet behind the ears.
2. Shane Lowry - Top 10 (4/1)
Another player who has started very slow - seemingly suffering from some burnout. He has had a very light schedule since The Players.
Ranks in the Top 30 for driving distance and SG Approach.
Doesn't mind crap weather.
Finished T3 in 2022 Masters
3. Top Englishman - Justin Rose (10/3)
These nationality bets are always tough - but can pay well if a few guys fall on their sword.
Matt Fitzpatrick hasn't found it this year and Hatton has expressed his frustrations with Augusta.
Rose is next and has played well - winning at Pebble Beach in some tough conditions.
Finished T6 at The Players as well and has well-documented positive vibes at Augusta.
4. Bogey Free Round in Tournament - Colin Morikawa (7/2)
I don't see him having a top 5 with all the weather around but you know that one of the days he's gonna have it dialled.
5. Tony Finau - Top 5 (4/1)
Big Tone!
Elite SG Approach this year!
25th SG off the tee and 23rd putting.
Tony has learnt this place - 3 x Top 10s in 5 starts.
If you parlay all of these you get a whopping good deal!
Good luck out there.
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